It has been shown that childhood obesity is predictive for obesity in adulthood. Data from the Minneapolis Children’s Blood Pressure Study demonstrated that childhood weight and BMI at about 8 years of age were significantly correlated with young adult weight, BMI, fasting insulin, lipids, and systolic blood pressure [38]. Multivariate analysis of data from the Canadian Trois-Rivieres semilongitudinal study of growth and development revealed that the BMI at an age of 12 years was the sole significant predictor of adult BMI [39]. The prediction of obesity was more precise in adolescence than in early childhood [40]. Whitaker et al. reported the following odds ratios for obesity in adulthood associated with childhood obesity [41]: 4.1 at 3–5 years, 10.3 at 6–9 years, and 20.3 at 15–17 years. At first glance, these results look impressive. If we take a closer look at the authors’ data and calculate sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) for obesity at the age of 6–9 years to predict obesity in adulthood – 43, 93 and 55%, respectively – these results are no longer that impressive: a sensitivity of less than 50% means that for less than 50% of obese adults obesity
could be predicted by obesity at the age of 6–9 years.
Must et al. investigated, whether overweight in adolescents of age 13–18
was a good predictor for health problems in later ages and mortality. They
found an association with an increased risk of mortality for all causes and
disease-specific mortality among men, but not among women. The relative
risks among men were 1.8 for mortality from all causes and 2.3 for mortality
from coronary heart disease. The risk of morbidity from coronary heart disease
and atherosclerosis was increased among men and women who had been overweight
in adolescence. The risk of colorectal cancer was increased among men
and the risk of arthritis was increased among women who had been overweight
in adolescence. Interestingly, overweight in adolescence was a more powerful
predictor of all the above mentioned risks than overweight in adulthood [42].
A case-control study performed in Maryland compared mortality of people
in their middle ages with body mass in childhood (5–18 years). Odds ratios
of mortality increased linearly with prepubertal relative weight (p 0.05) [43].
could be predicted by obesity at the age of 6–9 years.
Must et al. investigated, whether overweight in adolescents of age 13–18
was a good predictor for health problems in later ages and mortality. They
found an association with an increased risk of mortality for all causes and
disease-specific mortality among men, but not among women. The relative
risks among men were 1.8 for mortality from all causes and 2.3 for mortality
from coronary heart disease. The risk of morbidity from coronary heart disease
and atherosclerosis was increased among men and women who had been overweight
in adolescence. The risk of colorectal cancer was increased among men
and the risk of arthritis was increased among women who had been overweight
in adolescence. Interestingly, overweight in adolescence was a more powerful
predictor of all the above mentioned risks than overweight in adulthood [42].
A case-control study performed in Maryland compared mortality of people
in their middle ages with body mass in childhood (5–18 years). Odds ratios
of mortality increased linearly with prepubertal relative weight (p 0.05) [43].
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